A comprehensive physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model for nicotine in humans from using nicotine-containing products with different routes of exposure.

Physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling can be a useful tool for characterizing nicotine pharmacokinetics (PK) from use of tobacco products. We expand a previously published PBPK model to simulate a nicotine PK profile, following single or multiple use of various tobacco products [cigarettes, smokeless tobacco, and electronic nicotine delivery systems, or a nicotine inhaler (NICOTROL)] The uptake route in the model was designed to allow for three uptake compartments: buccal cavity (BC), upper respiratory tract (URT) (conducting and transitional airways) and lower respiratory tract (alveolar region). Within each region, the model includes product-specific descriptions of the flux of nicotine into plasma, as well as the flux of nicotine from the BC and URT to the gastrointestinal tract. These descriptions are based on regional deposition and diffusion models of nicotine into plasma, which depends on the product type. Regional deposition flux combined with regional differences in physiological parameters (e.g., blood perfusion ratio and tissue thickness) play a key role in the product-specific PK profile of nicotine. The current model describes the slower flux of nicotine into plasma across the BC and URT, as well as the rapid flux known to occur in the alveolar region. Overall, the addition of the BC and respiratory tract compartments to the nicotine model provided simulation results that are comparable to the nicotine time-course plasma concentrations reported from clinical studies for the four product categories simulated.

Estimating the Population Health Impact of Recently Introduced Modified Risk Tobacco Products: A Comparison of Different Approaches.

INTRODUCTION: Various approaches have been used to estimate the population health impact of introducing a Modified Risk Tobacco Product (MRTP). AIMS AND METHODS: We aimed to compare and contrast aspects of models considering effects on mortality that were known to experts attending a meeting on models in 2018. RESULTS: Thirteen models are described, some focussing on e-cigarettes, others more general. Most models are cohort-based, comparing results with or without MRTP introduction. They typically start with a population with known smoking habits and then use transition probabilities either to update smoking habits in the "null scenario" or joint smoking and MRTP habits in an "alternative scenario". The models vary in the tobacco groups and transition probabilities considered. Based on aspects of the tobacco history developed, the models compare mortality risks, and sometimes life-years lost and health costs, between scenarios. Estimating effects on population health depends on frequency of use of the MRTP and smoking, and the extent to which the products expose users to harmful constituents. Strengths and weaknesses of the approaches are summarized. CONCLUSIONS: Despite methodological differences, most modellers have assumed the increase in risk of mortality from MRTP use, relative to that from cigarette smoking, to be very low and have concluded that MRTP introduction is likely to have a beneficial impact. Further model development, supplemented by preliminary results from well-designed epidemiological studies, should enable more precise prediction of the anticipated effects of MRTP introduction. IMPLICATIONS: There is a need to estimate the population health impact of introducing modified risk nicotine-containing products for smokers unwilling or unable to quit. This paper reviews a variety of modeling methodologies proposed to do this, and discusses the implications of the different approaches. It should assist modelers in refining and improving their models, and help toward providing authorities with more reliable estimates.

The impact of cigarette and e-cigarette use history on transition patterns: a longitudinal analysis of the population assessment of tobacco and health (PATH) study, 2013-2015.

BACKGROUND: Population models have been developed to evaluate the impact of new tobacco products on the overall population. Reliable input parameters such as longitudinal tobacco use transitions are needed to quantify the net population health impact including the number of premature deaths prevented, additional life years, and changes in cigarette smoking prevalence. METHODS: This secondary analysis assessed transition patterns from PATH wave 1 (2013-14) to wave 2 (2014-15) among adult exclusive cigarette smokers, exclusive e-cigarette users, and dual users. Transition probabilities were calculated by taking into account factors including cigarette smoking and e-cigarette use histories and experimental or established use behaviors. Multinomial logistic regression models were constructed to further evaluate factors associated with transition patterns. RESULTS: Differential transition probabilities emerged among study subgroups when taking into account cigarette smoking and e-cigarette use histories and experimental or established use behaviors. For example, overall 45% of exclusive e-cigarette users in wave 1 continued using e-cigarettes exclusively in wave 2. However, we observed approximately 11 to 14% of wave 1 exclusive experimental e-cigarette users continued to use e-cigarette exclusively in wave 2, compared to about 62% of exclusive established e-cigarette users. The history of cigarette smoking and e-cigarette use is another important factor associated with transition patterns. Among experimental e-cigarette users, 7.5% of individuals without a history of cigarette smoking transitioned to exclusive cigarette smoking, compared to 30% of individuals with a history of cigarette smoking. Additionally, 1.3% of exclusive cigarette smokers in wave 1 transitioned to exclusive e-cigarette use, with the highest transition probability (3.7%) observed in the established cigarette smoker with a history of e-cigarette use subgroup. CONCLUSIONS: Product use histories and current use behaviors are important factors influencing transitions between product use states. Given that experimental users' transition behaviors may be more variable and more influenced by tobacco use history, long-term predictions made by population models could be improved by the use of transition probabilities from established users. As transition patterns might be changing over time, long-term transition patterns can be examined through analysis of future waves of PATH data.

A Computational Model for Assessing the Population Health Impact of Introducing a Modified Risk Claim on an Existing Smokeless Tobacco Product.

Computational models are valuable tools for predicting the population effects prior to Food and Drug Administration (FDA) authorization of a modified risk claim on a tobacco product. We have developed and validated a population model using best modeling practices. Our model consists of a Markov compartmental model based on cohorts starting at a defined age and followed up to a specific age accounting for 29 tobacco-use states based on a cohort members transition pathway. The Markov model is coupled with statistical mortality models and excess relative risk ratio estimates to determine survival probabilities from use of smokeless tobacco. Our model estimates the difference in premature deaths prevented by comparing Base Case ("world-as-is") and Modified Case (the most likely outcome given that a modified risk claim is authorized) scenarios. Nationally representative transition probabilities were used for the Base Case. Probabilities of key transitions for the Modified Case were estimated based on a behavioral intentions study in users and nonusers. Our model predicts an estimated 93,000 premature deaths would be avoided over a 60-year period upon authorization of a modified risk claim. Our sensitivity analyses using various reasonable ranges of input parameters do not indicate any scenario under which the net benefit could be offset entirely.

The relationship between nicotine dependence scores and biomarkers of exposure in adult cigarette smokers.

BACKGROUND: Tobacco dependence is a multidimensional phenomenon. The Fagerström Test for Nicotine Dependence (FTND) is a widely administered six-item questionnaire used as a measure of nicotine dependence. It has been suggested that this test may not represent the entire spectrum of factors related to dependence. Also the relationship of this test with biomarkers of exposure to cigarette smoke has not been extensively studied. METHODS: Data from a multi-center, cross-sectional, ambulatory study of US adult smokers (the Total Exposure Study, TES) was analyzed. The FTND score and a number of additional questions related to smoking behavior, from an adult smoker questionnaire (ASQ) completed by 3585 adult smokers in the TES were analyzed. The 24-h urine nicotine equivalents, serum cotinine and blood carboxyhemoglobin were measured as biomarkers of exposure (BOE) to nicotine and carbon monoxide. Cigarette butts returned were collected during the 24-h urine collection period. RESULTS: The FTND showed moderate correlations with BOE, while selected questions from ASQ although statistically significant, had weaker correlations. FTND scores showed substantially weaker correlations without the question about cigarettes smoked per day (CPD). CPD and time to first cigarette (TTFC) had the most impact on BOE. CONCLUSION: Additional questions from ASQ did not appear to contribute towards refining the FTND test. The correlation of the FTND scores with nicotine and carbon monoxide seems to be primarily driven by CPD. CPD and TTFC were the most important factors correlating with exposure.